Wednesday, August 20, 2008

UK Property Prices Fall But Unaffordability Rises

It looks as though it's going to be bad news on the housing market for the next couple of years at least. Property economists at Capital Economics have said earlier this week that it was possible that the credit crunch, coupled with turbulence in the financial markets, and falling consumer confidence could knock 25% off the value of some houses, taking nearly £44,000 off the current average price for a property of £174,000.

The latest property survey indicates that house prices fell by 0.2% in March, with the average value now at £174,100 - a fall of £2,200 since last summer. Records now show a fall in house prices for six months in a row. Data also suggests that prices are falling in just under 29% of postcodes in the country, representing about 7.5m homes.

Other forecasts last week also suggested that house prices would fall in 2008, and experts are suggesting that the increasingly difficult mortgage market will only serve to drive house prices down even more.

However, despite the recent falls in house prices, a recent Housing Affordability Index shows that homes are far too expensive for most families in comparison to their disposable incomes. In quarter 3 of 2007, homes were found to be at their least affordable since the property crash of 1991, although there was a slight easing of the index as prices fell in the final quarter of the year.

Although there are predictions that house prices will fall by 4% this year, rising mortgage costs will keep houses just as unaffordable as they already are.

The influence of the current wave of immigrants on the economy has been in the news recently. Their impact on house prices has been to make them unaffordable for many British families, according to a parliamentary report. The House of Lords economic affairs committee says that immigration will help to push the price of a home to over 10 times the average wage in the next 23 years. By 2031 the British population will be up from 60.6m in 2006 to 71m, exerting 'a significant impact on the housing market.'

The effect of immigration has already pushed the price of a house up to over eight times the average wage. The committee calculates that it would be only 6.5 without the immigration effect.

No comments: